Matthew Taylor

So then, The Ashes for 2017-18 is underway and for favourite backers who sided with Australia, a potentially hairy situation at the Gabba turned into an easy watch on days four and five.

Full credit to the home side – a ten wicket drubbing is a huge victory in anyone’s books. But it didn’t always look like going that way and there’s plenty that can be taken from the match heading into the day-night second Test in Adelaide.

What we learned

The margin of victory flattered Australia. Lets not forget that save for Steve Smith’s brilliant century, Australia was staring down the barrel of a big first innings deficit. Considering England only made 302 on a docile pitch, that is a big cause for concern. The Aussies’ batting remains very vulnerable and the fourth innings said more about England than it did Australia.

On the flip side, England fell in a heap very quickly. Their performances in the third and fourth innings were insipid and left a number of players hopelessly exposed for the remainder of the series – in particular Chris Woakes and Jake Ball, who were largely ineffective with the ball. Alastair Cook also looks in big trouble. Pace and/or bounce undid him with relative ease in both innings and that is unlikely to let up going forward.

Adelaide conditions

The key ingredient here is obviously the day-night factor, which has pushed the price of the draw right out to $6.00 for this Test match. Australia has won the previous two day-night Adelaide Tests after bowling first and the off chance of inclement weather seems the only conceivable reason a draw could eventuate.

In the pre-day-night era Adelaide was viewed as a batsman’s paradise, but the change in session times and introduction of a pink ball has also coincided with the new groundsman’s preference to leave a little bit of grass on the wicket. As a result, lively cricket that should eventuate, with Australia’s pace attack in particular suited.

The teams

There’s no market for this but Australia is $1.01 to go in with the same team. Why change a winning formula? Plenty was said about Usman Khawaja’s dismissal in Brisbane but I’m less critical than others. He made a big hundred here last year against South Africa.

England may consider a change – but realistically who do they have? Jake Ball appears the most vulnerable, with tall paceman Craig Overton or leg spinner Mason Crane the only genuine contenders. Ben Stokes surely won’t return until Perth at the earliest, if at all.

Betting

At $1.65 to win the Test match, it is hard to back the home side with great confidence. This is mainly due to the fragility of their batting and the potential for bowler-friendly conditions, which given the right turn of events could give England the advantage. The toss will be all-important.

With this in mind, plus the unlikelihood of a draw, it leaves us in the unenviable position of England being the only realistic head-to-head betting proposition. But even then, it is just impossible to talk ourselves into a bet. It is conceivable Stuart Broad and James Anderson could do some damage – but should that be the case, Australia’s three-pronged pace attack would likely respond with equal vigour.

Instead, lets look out wide at the Australian high bat market. An enormous $6.00 is available for Usman Khawaja to top score – a player in excellent first class form before the first Test, who excels in Australian conditions and has enjoyed previous success in pink ball day-night Test cricket in Adelaide. With so much percentage taken up by Steve Smith and David Warner, Khawaja looks a great bet.

Tip: Something small Usman Khawaja Australia 1st innings highest run scorer @ $6.00