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Rosehill Gardens

Racepal Metro Race Previews: Saturday 30 March

By Matthew Taylor on March 29, 2019

The Group 1 racing is in full swing again this Saturday, with two top grade races at Rosehill Gardens the highlight.

There’s also the Golden Mile meeting at Bendigo and a huge 10-race card at Doomben to sink our teeth into.

The team at Racepal have handed down their thoughts on every race at all three meetings. To learn more about their services, head to Racepal.com.au

ROSEHILL GARDENS 

Track: Soft 7 (Thursday)

Rail: +6m entire

Weather: 5-10mm rain predicted Friday, possible light shower Saturday

If the predicted Friday rain eventuates, Rosehill will likely be flirting with a third straight Saturday in the Heavy range. The rail shifts out to the +6m position – they were steering towards the middle of the straight last Saturday and that trend should continue here.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: A field of 12 for the G3 Schweppervescence. Bellevue Hill only knows one way and will go straight to the front while Le Tene can follow it across. The rest will be content to settle midfield – perhaps Fortress Command is handier from barrier two.

Advantaged runners: This is a slight afterthought for Slipper emergency BELLEVUE HILL but his record reads well for this and he’ll make his own luck in front. LA TENE was huge winning the VRC Sires at Flemington and she has the 1400m experience the toppy lacks. ROME and STRASBOURG both present second up off 1200m runs in Group company. Big watch on FORTRESS COMMAND who went through his gears nicely to win the Beaumont Handicap.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: The likes of Almost Court and Taikomochi typically enjoy rolling along close to the speed and they can make the pace here. Moss ‘n’ Dale will be close up from barrier one while Main Stage gets a chance to slide up and settle closer here.

Advantaged runners: No surprise to see the Gelagotis camp chasing more wet track Group success in Sydney with MOSS ’N’ DALE. He’ll get every chance to repeat the dose with the gun run. HARLEM’s inclusion is fascinating – but the Australian Cup winner is no swimmer. The Busuttin/Young pair of TAVAGO and MAIN STGE profile to improve sharply here, respect for GOATHLAND too who brings Red Cardinal form – he’s a G1 chance today.

RACE 3

Speed map/race shape: The map is once again fairly straightforward in the G2 Tulloch, with Cossetot and Shaman likely to look for the front from Angel Of Truth Firstclass Dreamer. The Kiwis will likely settle midfield and beyond. Don’t expect a particularly onerous tempo.

Advantaged runners: There’s a few Kiwis making strong cases here, with MADISON COUNTY leading the charge. He was a late scratching from the Guineas last week and looks an even better chance here. His turn of foot gives him the edge over compatriots IN A TWINKLING and PLATINUM INVADOR who filled the placings in the NZ Derby. COSSETOT is the Aussie who is up and running, he’s also two from two on rain affected ground and may look to control the tempo from the front.

RACE 4

Speed map/race shape: Daysee Doom can control the Emancipation from the front, with no real challengers for the lead. Dyslexic may slide through to be handy, perhaps Naantali from wide can cross over as well, but there doesn’t look to be much urgency here.

Advantaged runners: ALIZEE holds the aces, obviously. All her runs this prep would win this. Barrier 10 probably isn’t ideal but at least Shinn can keep her out of trouble. DAYSEE DOOM was okay first up and will receive less pressure here. She missed a run in the Coolmore – of those who tackled that race, PRINCESS POSH appears to be going best of all. DYSLEXIC ran a better race over this track/distance than any of the Coolmore runners on the same day and can race handily again. They’ll all need to pull out plenty to beat Alizee.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: In contrast to the early events, we’re expecting a fair bit of pressure in the G3 Star Kingdom. Estijaab has drawn widest but should press on and tackle Fiery Heights and speedy Kiwi Ardrossan for the front. Manuel has been on the pace at Group 1 level this prep so will also look to be prominent.

Advantaged runners: There’s a bit to like about MANUEL’s set up here. He’s been racing over further (and in better company) and the fitness base will serve him well in a tough 1200m event. The up and comer is 2018 Slipper winner ESTIJAAB who has hardly been disgraced at two runs this prep, she just needs luck early to feature. TREKKING was a drifter in betting when a length off Easy Eddie last start, that turned out to be Group 1 form! He’s the most likely of the closers. Plenty of respect for ARDROSSAN, he’s unbeaten on Soft going and gets the services of top jockey James McDonald.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: Greysful Glamour was mistakenly restrained at Kembla, but they won’t make the same mistake again. The lead is hers for the taking in the G1 Vinery, with Autumn, Aristia and Seabrook from out wider to all race prominently.

Advantaged runners: The Vinery is shaping up as a fantastic race between a seriously good bunch of fillies. EL DORADO DREAMING took on the older mares in the G1 Coolmore. They ran a quicker time than the fillies in the G2 Phar Lap on the same day, which was won by VERRY ELLEEGANT. Of all the Phar Lap runners, QAFILA is most advantaged by the step up to 2000m here, but she remains unproven in the wet. Then of course there’s NAKEETA JANE who has been given three weeks to recover from taking on The Autumn Sun! She may have run her Grand Final though? Impossible to ignore the ‘sectional star’ POHUTUKAWA, she smashed them in the Kembla Classic. No real knock on the others. Cracker!

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: The speed runner has drawn wide in the G1 Tancred, bu don’t expect Ace High to face much opposition crossing over. Vengeur Masque and Ventura Storm can be handy while Avilius should settle midfield from barrier seven.

Advantaged runners: The key to the Tancred is clearly AVILIUS and how well he has backed up from last week’s dominant performance in the G1 Ranvet. The distance is no issue but he’s had a couple of Grand Finals now and this may be asking a lot of the horse. If we were to look elsewhere, RED CARDINAL is the standout. He’s turned a corner this preparation and the wet tracks are likely playing a key role. Stablemate BIG DUKE is also on the back up and is ready to peak. RODINELLA is a genuine each-way hope coming off a G1 NZ Stakes placing.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: A relative lack of pressure in the G3 Doncaster Prelude should allow Mask Of Time and Tom Melbourne to stroll through and lead. There’s an opportunity for Don’t Give A Damn to cross and join Siege Of Quebec in the trail, with Seaway not far away.

Advantaged runners: MASK OF TIME was overhauled by Fifty Stars in the last few strides in the Ajax. He’s developed a liking for this track and distance and the map is favourable, but he does cop a 4.5kg weight penalty for that effort. The start prior he was beaten home by SEAWAY who was luckless in the Ajax. He gets the weight swing but a genuine Heavy track remains a query for him. SIEGE OF QUEBEC gets all the favours in the run, his only Heavy start was in better company so should be given the benefit of the doubt.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: If Don’t Give A Damn choses this option instead of the Doncaster Prelude he can lead from barrier two, with Special Missile joining him. Spring Charlie and Mahalangur, while the likes of Zourkhan and Get On The Grande may get stuck wider.

Advantaged runners: STAR OF THE SEAS gets the chance to go back to back. He returns to the scene of the crime and isn’t too badly penalised for running straight past MAHALANGUR, who once again makes a strong case and will be prominent in running. SPRING CHARLIE has an imposing record and this trip is right in his wheelhouse, fitness is the query after five weeks between runs. Wary of RENEWAL who got the job done first up but is yet to produce his best at 1400m. Respect for DON’T GIVE A DAMN who enjoys rain-affected going and could get things to suit in front.

BENDIGO 

Track: Good 4

Rail: True entire 

Weather: Mostly sunny, chance of 1-5mm rain Friday

A whopping 152 acceptors for the Bendigo standalone Saturday meeting, with the features being the Golden Mile and Guineas late in the program. The track is typically pretty fair and no different is expected here.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: As will be the case today, big fields typically bring decent pressure and tempo to the race. Blue Tycoon and Won Ball will be urged to cross from wide, while Lucky Fish and Sunday Pray from low draws can try and kick up. Beauty will get a gun run.

Advantaged runners: MANDELA EFFECT brings the best credentials on paper, with seven wins from 13 starts, including over Streets Of Avalon last year. He possesses a big finish but could find himself a long way back, which hands a big advantage to BEAUTY. She’s on the way up and is ready to win after two good efforts at Flemington this time in work. Both SUNDAY PRAY and STREET SHEIK finished second in their respective races last time out and the form has been subsequently franked. The former’s racing pattern gives him the edge.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: A handful of these like to lead and there may be some early jostling for position. Think Music, Awaytoff and Transact have all drawn the lower half and should fight for the lead amongst themselves, with Budd Fox and Southern Yankee slotting in.

Advantaged runners: Three-year-olds only tackling the staying trip here in the second. SECRET BLAZE and SOUTHERN YANKEE come through the Alister Clark. Secret Blaze was clearly the better run but got things his own way from barrier one – he’ll need a peach from Currie after drawing 15 here. There’s plenty of early value about MINER’S MISS who is first up but was last seen running third in the Oaks, the quinella there are tackling a Group 1 on Saturday. TRANSACT was unlucky in the Geelong Classic in the Spring and arrives here third up and ready to win.

RACE 3

Speed map/race shape: There’s up to six debutants here, but four of those are emergencies. Invincible Lotus has the most speed of what we’ve seen and from the low draw he can kick up to hold out Sisstar and Prince Of Sussex.

Advantaged runners: The form around MOCKERY makes her a key contender. She beat Cheer Leader up the Flemington straight, and he bolted in last Friday night at The Valley. The filly maps for a cold run behind the leaders. GROOT will need a special from Meech to find cover early but his debut run at Group 3 level frames him as a contender. SISSTAR was fancied on debut when finishing on the heels of Lankan Star, she’ll be making the running with INVINCIBLE LOTUS who may appreciate the step back in grade and distance.

RACE 4 

Speed map/race shape: Seven Year Reward likes to lead and should do so from barrier one, but Carlingford, Huge Action and/or Malahat drawn inside him may make him work. Easy Beast’s best chance of featuring is to cross from barrier 14 and join the leader.

Advantaged runners: Looking for a few of the runners from midfield to make the most of any early pressure. CREATIVITY resumes for a new trainer and typically sprints well fresh. She’ll be racing in company with YULONG YUHENG who has had his blow out run and is ready to show his UK form. BEL SONIC may even spot them a start but his run in the Hareeba showed he’s threatening to win soon. They’ll all need to catch SEVEN YEAR REWARD who will try and make all with just 52kgs after the claim.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: Truly Discreet is expected to settle much closer than last start, but it is unlikely she has the speed to pinch the lead from Miss Siska. Twitchy Frank and River Jewel shouldn’t need to work too hard to slide across into forward positions either.

Advantaged runners: The class of the field is LA BELLA DIOSA who can springboard off a great run in a sizzling Sydney race. The step to 1400m gives her extra time to wind up from the read and reel in the other favoured runners on speed. Most prominent of those is MISS SISKA who resumes here. She stretched out to 2000m at Group 2 level last prep. TWITCHY FRANK is another racing well and appears to be enjoying life in Tasmania. RIVER JEWEL can give a sight stepping up in grade.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: Genuine tempo expected in the BM84 stayers event. Sirkos and Tiffany’s Lass both led over 1600m last start, but it is unlikely the gostly grey Valac will have any interest in allowing them a soft time in front. Instigator and Rockarral head up the rest.

Advantaged runners: If BELGRAVIA turns up ready to go, he has the number to win this race. He’s third up and was most recently seen running on against the pattern over the Flemington 2000m. He may slot into a three-wide line in this, as may MOSH MUSIC. The mare has won four from five this prep but probably should be unbeaten and has already shown the trip is no issue. The Waller pair DARK PEARL and DESERT PATH both have good numbers but have also both drawn awkwardly and may end up a fair way back. They’ll spot a start to VALAC and ROCKARRAL who are racing in good heart.

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: The Golden Mile should be a genuinely run affair, courtesy of the wide draws held by front-runners Lite’n in My Veins and Dodging Bullets. This may present Furrion with an opportunity to get the cart across into a prime position.

Advantaged runners: If the above scenario plays out, then FURRION appears awfully hard to beat here. He presents second up off a promising run at Flemington and appears perfectly placed to extend his unbeaten second up record. The first furlong holds the key. Should things not pan out that way, runners such as SILENTZ and ZEBULON may be best placed to run on from midfield and beyond from wider draws. Their form lines up with the likes of PLEIN CIEL, MANTASTIC and VIOLATE but they may be buried in the pack and need the seas to part turning for home. Don’t dismiss Morton’s Fork back on drier ground either.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: Outrageous was a surprise leader at Flemington but its unlikely he has the speed to cross Pickup The Pieces drawn inside him. There’s a host of horses who enjoy racing handily, including Mystery Love, Scottish Rogue and Muswellbrook.

Advantaged runners: Fairly even race with many chances. OUTRAGEOUS beat a smart one at Flemington but won’t get to stack them up at a walk here. Regardless, he’ll be handy and many of the main hopes will have to get past him. SCOTTISH ROGUE ran on against the pattern in that race and could potentially get Outrageous’ back here. From a similar position in running SACCHARO can make an impact if he replicated his Spring form – he was beaten at odds on first up this prep. With luck from a wide draw MARCEL FROM MADRID should be running on into the finish, he’s desperate for this trip after chasing home Anjana twice this prep. Chances also to the improving MYSTERY LOVE, BLINDER and MUSWELLBROOK first up.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: A few candidates to lead again in the last on the card, most notably Al Passem, Critical Thinking and Simply Invincible. There should be an opportunity for Kazio, Fox Hall and Malaise to slot into advantaged positions from wider draws.

Advantaged runners: He had too much to do against the pattern of the day at Flemington but ANTAH should get the chance to run on from the second half and into the money here. He chased home SIMPLY INVINCIBLE that day who sat outside a hot-pot leader and wore him down, the race rated highly. WAGING WAR will also be running on, his last start was shrouded in protest controversy but the performance was great regardless. SUPER TITUS is first up in Australia and crunched early in betting, his best form is over much further though. The blowout hope is MAN OF HIS WORD back from the All Star Mile!

DOOMBEN

Track: Good 4 (Thursday) 

Rail: +1m entire 

Weather: Showers

Persistent niggling rain in the lead up to Saturday means we’re flirting with a Soft surface for the 10-race card. The rail is back to the +1m position – the inside six metres hasn’t been used for a month and inside lanes/rails in run may be favourable.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: The speed comes from nearer the inside courtesy of Bella Occhi and Boom Chicka Boom, who can take it up from Lord Barrington and Masterati.

Advantaged runners: The tempo doesn’t look too frantic and those front-runners look most advantaged. BOOM CHICKA BOOM is a known fresh sprinter and presents off an eight-week layoff here. His record on Soft isn’t flash but things didn’t quite work out for him at either start. MASTERATI never runs a bad race but hasn’t won for a while, while BELLA OCCHI was scratched from Wednesday to run here and could try and lead the whole way. Don’t dismiss SUNDARBANS – she has mixed it in good company but was recently cast aside by the Hawkes stable, from barrier one she just needs the breaks to feature.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: Ballistic Boy and Quart Pot both showed speed on debut and will be looking for the fence. Time For Love copped a bad check in a recent rich two-year-old race, she will be very handy from barrier two while Magic Palace can cross from the deep.

Advantaged runners: Very interesting circumstances here for the best performed horse in the race, MISS CAVALLO. She possesses a devastating turn of foot but she won’t be helped by the predicted pattern. In contrast BALLISTIC BOY should be in the right spot. He backed up a super trial with a debut win, but he’s unknown in the wet. So too is MAGIC PALACE, who beat inferior opposition with arrogance on debut. The step up to 1200m should suit though. THIRD MARTINI faces a similar predicament to Miss Cavallo, SAY HAYA can be forgiven for a defeat behind Niedorp and expensive Gollan debutant PURRONI should be watched in betting.

RACE 3 

Speed map/race shape: Trommelschlagen doesn’t look like having much opposition for the lead over 1600m, Bargannon should be handy, but the leader can run his own race.

Advantaged runners: With every downgrade HALLELUJAH BOY’s stocks grow in this race. The form is relatively even among these runners but he’s the real swimmer. TROMMELSCHLAGEN also handles the wet and will be in front turning for home, he’s developed an affinity with this track and distance. BARGANNON chased him home last time and will be closer in the run here. Both  EMINENT and LE JUGE also hold genuine chances, but would prefer things to stay drier to maximise their talents.

RACE 4

Speed map/race shape: Not the best Saturday staying crop we’ve seen. Remarkable Son is 1400m > 2200m so surely pushes forward from the carpark to join High Wind and Own Sweet Way at the pointy end.

Advantaged runners: This is a messy race. HIGH WIND was disappointing last start but was a runner up prior under similar conditions to this event. Any sting out helps him, as it does REMARKABLE SON who is sharply up in trip but will be in the right part of the track. Arguably ALLCASH’s Sydney form is stronger than the rest here – it has stood up from his last outing already. He’ll be running on from the rear alongside SEENTO.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: Zahspeed only knows one way and he will try and find the front, he will need to cross Tonsor who might not make things easy. Stella Ombra and Courtza King from wider will adopt forward positions.

Advantaged runners: Matthew Smith has sent TONSOR north to escape to escape the Stakes racing in Sydney and finds a suitable assignment for him here. He can lead or trail from the inside alley, has a strong rider engaged and enjoys the sting out – on ratings he will go close. TAWFIQ BOY continues to ‘run on’ without ever really threatening to win, perhaps the extra trip and sting out is what he needs. COURTZA KING needs an assertive ride early but if he can slot in one off the fence he’s a chance, he’s developed a liking for the track and trip. 

RACE 6 

Speed map/race shape: Deep Image is the designated leader here and will be making tracks across the field to lead. Lota Creek Gold possesses some speed and can follow him across, while Impasse and Secret Mo will be looking for the trail.

Advantaged runners: DEEP IMAGE didn’t run the mile last time but he did pants them over 1400m first up. Freshened here and dropping back to this distance range, he’ll take some catching. He’ll be tracked into the race by IMPASSE who could be well placed to strike, he’s just missed at both efforts this prep. SECRET MO went back to the provincials to regain his winning feeling, he’s a hope at odds. Expect BEACON to be scratched (won Wednesday).

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: The topweights The Tax Accountant and Al’s Kingdom should stroll to the front and lead this at a moderate gallop. Kitty Kins can also be handy.

Advantaged runners: THE TAX ACCOUNTANT was only a long neck behind the in-form Mishani Hustler last start. Stretching out to 1350m here should allow him to settle further forward in the run and continue his progression. Fellow front runner AL’S KINGDOM was scratched from Wednesday to resume here. This is short of his best trip but he’s a bold on-pacer. They’ll have a big head start on MILLARD REACTION who mowed a midweek field down on debut. The three-year-old faces a sharp rise in trip here but has oodles of talent. Respect for SOXAGON and MACEWEN who will also be looking to run on from the back.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: King Dinisty and Prince Of Tie are numbers 12 and 13 on the race card and they’ve drawn barrier 12 and 13 here. But they also have the most speed and will want to cross to the front. Brains will want to follow them across and join Tisani Magic.

Advantaged runners: This is the second division of the 1350m Class 6 event. KING DINISTY was last seen leading until the shadows of the post over 1615m. That run may give him a fitness edge over PRINCE OF TIE, over whom he gets a 1.5kg weight swing for running a close second the start prior. TISANI MAGIC seems to be putting it all together now as a four-year-old. His last start suggested he’s looking for the extra trip and he should secure a great run in transit. RIVER RACER has been freshened after failing at this level at Eagle Farm, as has BRAINS, while I AM IMPINGE has ability but will get back in the run.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: Lots of pressure from out wide in the 1200m event. Gypsy Toff and Zollikon Miss are the main speedsters but there’s a handful that can join them including Bonsho, Hirtshals and Malign. Plenty of runners drawn low have speed but may not want to absorb relentless pressure.

Advantaged runners: Looking to the filly WINTER PASSAGE to take it up to the older mares. She’s missed the placings only once in 13 starts and is perfectly positioned to strike off the hot tempo. Her form ties in with SPLITTER who scored a nice first up win over this trip. Chasing home Manaya has given her a good base for this, but she won’t want to get bundled up on the rail. FELINO BEL returned in good order and can be improved second up, while CYMBALISM has been freshened and sent back in trip after a 1350m win at this track.

RACE 10

Speed map/race shape: The speed comes from lower draws here but it will be on nonetheless. Rising Stock will want to use the rail and hold the front, but he’ll be pressured by Cabeirian, Comic Story and Mail Escort.

Advantaged runners: The last event on the card is for the boys division of the non metro winners. TOTALLY CHARMED is scratched from the first to run here. First up over 1000m he ground home well and will enjoy 1200m. Another horse who appreciates this track and trip is BUCK BAY, who scored on his Queensland debut – second has subsequently won. ALL PLUCK, CABEIRIAN, COMIC STORY and HAPPY HOOVES are all last start winners – if we were to single out one of them, perhaps the latter can peak third up here.

Racepal Metro Race Previews: Golden Slipper Day, Saturday 23 March

By Matthew Taylor on March 22, 2019

Golden Slipper day is one of the best on the racing calendar, with five Group 1s across the card and a host of starts on show.

While the main event is the Slipper itself to crown the two-year-old sprinting champion, the world’s best horse Winx is also on show in the George Ryder, while a new champion of the turf The Autumn Sun will be sent out at odds on in the Rosehill Guineas.

Of course the action isn’t limited to Rosehill, with Mornington Cup Day and a competitive card at Eagle Farm as well.

Our partners at Racepal have assessed every race on the three big metro cards to give you a head start to finding the winners. You can check out all that Racepal has to offer at Racepal.com.au

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Heavy 8 (Thursday 9am) 

Rail: +3m entire.

Weather: Light, scattered showers.

Golden Slipper day is one of the best on the racing calendar, but it wouldn’t be a Sydney autumn carnival without the threat of a bottomless track. Thankfully we should be improving to around the Soft 7 mark come race day. It seems likely that as the day progresses, off fence will be the better ground.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: Sweet Scandal should cross In Good Time and Mollyfied to lead the G3 Birthday Card, but we suspect they won’t go too hard here with uncertainty over where the best ground lies.

Advantaged runners: Some impressive wet track figures among this lot. SWEET SCANDAL was only beaten 1.5L in a frantic Weona Girl, should could get all the favours. RESIN ran past her aided by the pace but was only first up, while STAR REFLECTION was on their tails. The Kiwi ADVANTAGE boasts an impressive record and is unbeaten in the wet, she’ll be poised to strike. SHE KNOWS is on the back up from last week where she gave Easy Eddie a scare.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: Classique Legend is a bold striding grey and will look to cross and be prominent from a wide alley. He won’t have to work too hard with only Jonker and Yulong January (if here) keen to go forward with him. That will give Charge a nice cart across too.

Advantaged runners: The wraps on CLASSIQUE LEGEND are huge and he’s beautifully placed here by Les Bridge. He’s already ticked the wet track box and can control this affair. The best credentialed challenger is GEM SONG but he may be awkwardly placed in the run and have too much to do. This prep has been a bit stop-start for him. JONKER’s wet form is better than it reads and his most recent run brings PROPHET’S THUMB into the equation.

RACE 3 

Speed map/race shape: The G3 Manion Cup over 2400m will reveal how much of a slog it is getting through this track. Big Blue is the expected leader with Rodrico, Midterm and Etymology slotting in. Anticipating a muddling tempo, so mid-race moves would not shock.

Advantaged runners: Difficult to get overly excited about this one, but there’s still a winner to be found. Of the main contenders, BIG DUKE is third up and loves the wet, but he was soundly beaten home by SHRAAOH last start. Kiwi stablemates VIN DE DANCE and ZACADA are back, the former drops down from Group 1 company while the latter nearly stole the Sydney Cup last year. Old mate ETYMOLOGY is back after a failed Tasmanian raid, while MIDTERM is a fitness query. Lloyd’s lot aren’t going that well at the moment.

RACE 4

Speed map/race shape: The map looks a little uncertain. On previous runs you’d have Yulong Tavion kicking up to lead Arrogant and Chapada close by. Don’t be surprised to see the other fit Kiwi raiders race forward and test out the Aussies.

Advantaged runners: Don’t you just love when a card is so good that there’s a Group 1 by Race 4? The Guineas market revolves around The Autumn Sun at $1.50. He’s not a twos on chance in our book but he’ll be in every rec multi in the country so the price should hold up. He’s a brilliant horse but has never tried 2000m before. In any case, he’s got the local brigade covered but the Kiwis might give his backers more than a fright. MADISON COUNTY is a brilliant miler but also untested at this trip. Then there’s the NZ Derby (2400m) runners, back in trip and fit. CROWN PROSECUTOR was the 100/1 winner there but SURELY SACRED probably presents the best case.

RACE 5 

Speed map/race shape: Just eight runners left for the G1 George Ryder after the early scratching. We expect Prompt Response to be joined by Dreamforce in front, with Brutal and perhaps Teleplay behind. Winx will be out the back and rolling into it early.

Advantaged runners: From an up-and-coming champion to the best in the world. Winx will make it 32 on the fly here, it is just a matter of how far. The wet only enhances her chances. There’s no Happy Clapper here to make things exciting (shame, because he would’ve picked up good prizemoney for second again) so lets go with BRUTAL for second, he was pretty good in the Canterbury Stakes and is third up here. No knock on LAND OF PLENTY who is a genuine Group 1 horse, nor PROMPT RESPONSE or RINGERDINGDING. Just enjoy this one.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: The lack of early pace in the G1 Ranvet makes things easier for Ace High to cross from the awkward outside alley over the 2000m start. He’ll make the running alongside The Taj Mahal. Almandin, Danzdanzdance and Sikandarabad will all be close by.

Advantaged runners: There will be question marks over AVILIUS coming into this after an inconclusive Australian Cup failure. He loomed up but peaked when he looked to have the race shot to bits. Runner up SHILLELAGH missed by a whisker there and perhaps that was her target race, which makes stablemate UNFORGOTTEN the best chance of the Waller quintet. She’s third up and ready to peak, but still somewhat unknown in the wet. Then there’s the Kiwis – DANZDANZDANCE will eat up the ground and arrives off a big Group 1 performance, while former UK horse HE’S EMINENT creates all sorts of interest. Watch 2016 Group 1 winner ALMANDIN closely in betting, he appreciates the sting out.

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: The G1 Golden Slipper is always a high pressure race and there is a good portion of speed drawn wide out in this renewal. The emergency Bellevue Hill requires three scratchings to gain a start but if she does, she can cross over with the likes of Free Of Debt, Kiamichi and Vincere Volare to lead. Those drawn in the inside half including Anaheed, Cosmic Force, Microphone and Time To Reign will all jostle for cosy trailing positions behind the speed. Expect the one-off and three-wide lines to be the ideal position in running.

Advantaged runners: Whichever way you look at it, this is another cracking edition of the Slipper. Cases can be made for a dozen of these but a demonstrated ability to cope with pressure and a Soft/Heavy surface is key. For that reason, COSMIC FORCE looks hard to beat, coming off a seven-length romp in the Pago Pago. He is tough, travels soundly and will be poised to strike in the run. He’s also been very well backed all week. Note MICROPHONE beat him in the Skyline so that ties in nicely.

It is interesting to note that the last eight Slipper winners have come via the Reisling or Todman Stakes (both run 14 days ago at Randwick), making them prime form references. From the fillies division, Reisling winner TENLEY is certainly the one who has created the biggest impression. But like Todman winner YES YES YES, both will be a long way back in the run and needing to do plenty of work. Out of those events, ANAHEED is perhaps best placed to turn the tables, given her luckless run throughout.

The Blue Diamond form should not be discounted either. That brings the trifecta there LYRE, LANKAN STAR and FREE OF DEBT right into calculations, while CATCH ME looks to be back on track. The blow out is devastating Black Opal winner PIN SEC. Cracking race!

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: The Group 1 action just keeps coming. There’s 13 acceptors for The Galaxy and half a dozen want to lead or be close to it. The likely story is Ball Of Muscle and Nature Strip take it up, while Jungle Edge and Redzel stalk them. From the widest alleys, Easy Eddie and Baller may need to be content with slotting in but they may even elect to form a three-wide line instead. Don’t forget that Graff tried to match it with Sunlight in the Newmarket, either.

Advantaged runners: This really will be a brutally run race. REDZEL is a tricky one to deal with despite mapping for a great run. We feel he was a little unlucky first up when they turned for home but BALL OF MUSCLE was just too tough. The Everest winner is also carrying a big weight here. NATURE STRIP is the ratings darling but a prime candidate to compound late in this high pressure event. Great to see the colt GRAFF take his place, he’s been enormous at two runs this time in and is ready to take a big scalp. PIERATA left it all a bit too late first up, while JUNGLE EDGE will lap up the ground. VIRIDINE ran third here 12 months ago and was gelded before his big first up run in the Challenge Stakes.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: Thirteen mares and two fillies for the G3 Epona to round out the card. Luskintyre Lass should be rolling to the front from a wide draw with Eugene’s Pick following her over for company. Each of Happy Every Day, Jungle Fish and Semari can race handily too.

Advantaged runners: Lots of respect in early markets for Victorian midweek form, which is intriguing. Both JUNGLE FISH and SEMARI have begun making a habit of winning but this is sizeable step up – at least they’ll both race in prominent positions. The primary Sydney form reference is the G3 Aspiration, with third through eighth across the line there (all beaten less than 3.5L) entered here. LUSKINTYRE LASS was favourite there, first across the line of the group reengaged here and should get a soft lead throughout. EUGENE’S PICK and HARMATTAN are the pick of the others from that form line and will feature prominently.

MORNINGTON 

Track: Good 4

Rail: True entire. 

Weather: Fine until race day, possible Saturday shower

Mornington Cup day brings with it a nine-race card and a trouble-free preparation for the track staff as far as weather is concerned. The track should play relatively fairly, although the abnormal configuration sometimes creates a slight run-on bias.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: A few eager leaders engaged in the first. Any of Esposito Gold, Hokkaido, North Afrika or Pria Eclipse could lead this with the likes of All Too Huying, Kaching and Never Again slotting in to midfield positions.

Advantaged runners: The tempo will be on early, so we’ll find out how kind this track is for those looking to make ground. BATTLECAMP will be looking to do just that. Third up and rising to 1600m is an ideal set up and he was deceptively impressive last time out. MACLAIREY is the other one to look out for, he ran pipped KACHING for second late at Bendigo. That galloper is struggling to win but will enjoy the relief of Nugent’s claim.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: The Mornington 1000m course is quite unique, being two turns in five furlongs. Horses who have appreciated the Moonee Valley sprint will enjoy this. Star Fall and Our Gladiator should be the quickest early, while The Centaurian is a chance of getting caught outside them if he can’t slot in outside of Moor Wanted or Miss Leonidas.

Advantaged runners: If STAR FALL’s path to the front is relatively pain free, he could take some catching. The Zoustar colt has won four from seven and been freshened since a rare defeat in Sydney. MISS LEONIDAS typically likes to lead but may not get there if OUR GLADIATOR pings out – that said she took on tougher events in the Spring and can win first up here. Of course if it is on for young and old here then MISS TOORAK FLYER could come bounding right over the top.

RACE 3 

Speed map/race shape: Pace comes from the middle and wider and from the 1200m start, they might have to work that little bit harder to cross. Every chance that Lauchetti keeps pressing on until she gets right around Enigman and Call It A Day to lead, dragging Island Daze with her.

Advantaged runners: Approximately 80% of early markets are taken up by on-pacers who could get engaged in a speed battle. Of them ENIGMAN presents the strongest case, he was a good winner at Caulfield two back against better and uses Nugent’s claim to good effect. CALL IT A DAY is a big Mornington fan (4-2:2) and this unfolds relatively well for him. He last ran second in a race where I’M TELLING YA blew out the cobwebs at his first start in 14 months – he’ll be closer here. ISLAND DAZE brings great form but will need to be tough.

RACE 4

Speed map/race shape: Girls only over the 1200m and Jentico can forge a relatively comfortable path to the front from Kootara, with Niamh Chinn Oir and Prahaar slotting in comfortably behind. The key pair Music Bay and Tahitian Dancer get ideal midfield runs.

Advantaged runners: This is by no means a two-horse race but there’s two pretty talented ones atop the early markets. MUSIC BAY was beaten at long odds on first up in strange circumstances. Regardless, the extra 200m here is crucial and the form lines from the Spring make for good reading. The problem is she may get caught inside TAHITIAN DANCER when looking to make a run. This filly brings Mystic Journey form out of her Spring campaign and looked sharp in a recent trial. It is hard to see PRIVATE LOUNGE running past them from the rear but JENTICO is a chance to give some cheek on the pace.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: A decent 300m or so run to the first turn should give the likes of Legionnaire and Cielo Stellato time to cross over early. Vinco is up sharply in trip and may settle handier than last time, with Really Discreet on his back.

Advantaged runners: Small field of two-year-olds for the Mornington Sires, with just two of them having three or more starts to their name. Regardless, REALLY DISCREET brings the strongest form to the table, being a debut win before a torrid run when fancied in a high rating VRC Sires. POWER SCHEME significantly out-performed market expectation in that race and will be running on here as well. VINCO was third in the Adelaide Magic Millions over 1200m and may appreciate further, while PIERRO ROSE stays under notice after tackling a hot race at Newcastle.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: They’ll do a full lap here over the 2000m course and the speed comed from down low, so the tempo may only be steady. The Willybe and Refectory should lead from Brigadier and Mitrust – they’ve all drawn barrier five or lower.

Advantaged runners: The pace-setters are all rougher hopes, and those with the best set ups also map for advantageous midfield runs. STEEL PRINCE finished last prep with six straight quinella finishes at 2400m+ and picked up where he left off at Sandown first up this time in work. He’ll likely drag THUNDER CLOUD into the race, who was third up when placing over this trip at Flemington. SOPRESSA, ANDREA MANTEGNA and O’LONERA will all be running on as well and ready to pounce on and slip ups from the favourites.

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: Not a whole lot of natural speed in the Mornington Cup, which should allow Trap For Fools to control this tempo comfortably. Tarquin and Ventura Storm can settle handy, but it is doubtful they’ll put too much pressure on the front runner.

Advantaged runners: TRAP FOR FOOLS is yet to tick the 2400m box but if he does, he may be might hard to run down here. His form through the Australian Cup (3rd) and Peter Young (2nd) is clearly the strongest here. Last time at this distance range he was overhauled by VENTURA STORM who presents here third up, but needs a good ride from Childs after drawing awkwardly. STARS OF CARRUM is the up-and-comer who went within a length of a Derby win in the Spring and recently was strong to the line in the Alister Clark. He’ll be trying to replicate that last effort here, as will HANG MAN who scored at Flemington after a peach of a ride from Ollie.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: Big field in the Hareeba and lots of pressure on. We can count nine that wouldn’t be upset by landing in front but from wide out Ashlor, I’m Wesley and Manuel will all likely press on, with Milwaukee, Moonlover and Mystyko handy.

Advantaged runners: They’ll need a clear passage but there’s a few of these that will be keen to slingshot out wide and storm over the top. BONS AWAY is the prime candidate after some top efforts at Caulfield this prep, he pulled up with an issue in the Newmarket so that can be forgiven. MANOLO BLAHNIQ is another who will enjoy the tempo and his fresh form has been excellent in recent preps. Of those likely to race nearer to the pace, MANUEL brings excellent 1400m Group 1 form which will stand him in good stead here fitness wise, while GLENALL will also enjoy the sharp drop from the top grade.

RACE 9 

Speed map/race shape: The tempo in the last will be solid enough, courtesy of speed from Stryker Queen and Duke Of Magnus from the outside gate, who can lead from Firstclass Dreamer, Esthetic and Ridgewood Drive.

Advantaged runners: We finish the day with the Mornington Guineas and a couple of key contenders look like fighting this one out. MR QUICKIE is the early even money favourite with the picket fence standing at five straight, so you don’t need us to tell you he’s good. Extra fitness and distance here are both positives and he just needs to settle midfield to be the one to beat. Of course STAR MISSLE has also made an impression, most recently scoring a dominant win against the older horses at Cranbourne. He may well need to run past Mr Quickie which will be difficult. STAROUZ’s Adelaide win earns him respect in this field while the Oaks filly SIZZLEME can improve sharply here.

EAGLE FARM

Track: Good 4

Rail: True Entire 

Weather: Fine

Hats off to the team preparing the Eagle Farm track, after substantial rain of late we’re still playing on a Good 4. Nine races on the card, the highlight being the rescheduled 3YO Jewel.

RACE 1

Speed map/race shape: All bar two horses in this field are stepping up to 1400m here. Hit Snooze can lead from the inside with Raingurl close by, then Girls Are Ready and Deck Of Aces can slot in behind them. Sizzling Babe’s draw will allow her to race off the fence.

Advantaged runners: The only 1400m form line for these two-year-olds sees the quinella from a fortnight ago return for another crack. SIZZLING BABE was a dominant winner, she tracked into it nicely and extended like a handy one. She ran down RAINGURL who was clearly no match but did hold off the other closers. GIRLS ARE READY is the main challenger to the favourite, she struggled in last week’s rich 2YO Jewel event but was well fancied and can atone. MAGIC BEANS has previously beaten Sizzling Babe and will likely assume a more prominent position than her in running.

RACE 2

Speed map/race shape: Pretty straightforward here for the staying race, with Lucadeal and Borazon using low draws to lead from Mullaghmore and Curse Free. Marshall will need to make an assertive early decision on Expert Reply, which could inject pace?

Advantaged runners: A few new arrivals in this week’s three-year-old distance brigade, but the best form still comes through the corresponding race a fortnight ago. TACTEEE and BORAZON get minor weight swings on MULLAGHMORE for finishing approx. two lengths behind him in that event over 1840m. TACTEE led that one in a decent tempo but if she settles off-pace here suspect she is the strongest of them all. LUCADEAL won on the same day at the Gold Coast and while he looks like he’ll lap up the trip, the strength of the form is doubtful.

RACE 3 

Speed map/race shape: Huge field, wide open market and plenty of pace. Suliven and Von Richter will need a compass to find their way over from out wide but they can join Sidetrip (if he gets a start) in front. Luck may play a part in navigating a clear run.

Advantaged runners: Some of these field sizes at Eagle Farm are magnificent. Sixteen plus eight emergencies for a 1500m Benchmark 70! A few leading contenders may be a fair way back, including BENFICA PRINCESS who nabbed FRANCISCA on the line here a fortnight ago. BELLE ROC is the lightly-raced improver but will be in a traffic jam. Settling a little closer may be PONYTALES who gets a nice drop in class on the back of consecutive runner up finishes. Both SEAHAMPTON and the leader SULIVEN arrive off wins but tackle harder here.

RACE 4 

Speed map/race shape: The same field and barriers from last week’s abandoned 3YO Jewel are carried over here. They won’t dawdle in front with Spirit’s Choice and Gypsy Toff the main contenders to lead, but a case could be made for another half dozen to find the top.

Advantaged runners: DEFENCE MISSILE draws for an identical box seat run to his last start when failing to run down MISHANI HUSTLER. Fancy the tables are turned today. SPIRIT’S CHOICE continues to prove too fast at provincial level but may not have enough gas in the tank to repeat in the metros. MACEWEN and BAREFOOT will be out the back and charging home which might be a favourable pattern later in the day.

RACE 5

Speed map/race shape: At risk of sounding like a broken record, the speed will be on with many candidates for the front. Silver Melody and Zoom By are lead-at-all-costs types and they’ll jostle with the likes of Pizonie, Munich, Frangipani Moon and Rock Beat for the front.

Advantaged runners: Half the field are resuming here, but there’s some pretty promising types. Consecutive seconds to Zoustyle and Outback Barbie last prep position JAMI LADY as very hard to beat first up here. She’ll follow that hot tempo and just needs the seas to part at the home turn. It is a similar story for USMANOV who will likely race in close quarters to the toppy, albeit his exposed form isn’t quite as impressive. A recent trial was sizzling and he’s ready to win again. If PIZONIE and FRANGIPANI MOON don’t get towelled up in front they both have winning hopes.

RACE 6

Speed map/race shape: An interesting scenario where the major pace-setters in Whycatchin and I’ve Gotta Nel are the fifth and sixth emergencies. If they don’t get a run, Expect From Within to cross from wide and lead, with Mr Marbellouz in the box seat.

Advantaged runners: Very interesting to see MR MARBELLOUZ dropped back to 1000m after he missed Saturday’s run when the meeting was abandoned. He gets all the favours here and will go around long odds on if WHYCATCHIM doesn’t run. That horse is a speedy customer who will run them along. Fair play to FROM WITHIN who had a crack at the Oakleigh Plate, she won’t know herself back here. Kris Lees sends GUARD OF HONOUR north for a fresh run and he’s one to look for closing off late along with JADENTOM.

RACE 7

Speed map/race shape: Intriguing 1800m affair where keen leader Kubis gets every chance to do just that from the inside alley, with the interesting starting point right on the turn. Remarkable Son, Reiby The Red and Get Stuck Inwill both be prominent.

Advantaged runners: The speed map seems to have the favourite GET STUCK IN comfortably slotting into a forward position and from there he’ll be hard to hold out. We’ll get a line on his form through Ponytales in Race 3 who he’s beaten as his last two. Waller has three entered here, perhaps SHADAL is the best placed. He never got a crack at this favourite last time. DECONSTRUCTED flew home first up behind Tumbler and is quickly up in trip, whhile KUBIS and REIBY THE RED are in winning form and can be prominent from on-pace positions.

RACE 8

Speed map/race shape: Sword Of Justice only knows one way and he’ll try and roll to the front and make it three all-the-way wins in a row. Jakuta and Impasse will be up there too and perhaps The Lord Mayor can be handy.

Advantaged runners: This may be an on-pace dominated race and for that reason SWORD OF JUSTICE is well placed to repeat the dose. He was a big distance query in the eyes of this judge last time but proved too good and its hard to see the others from that event turning the tables. The other main form reference is the Tumbler race from a fortnight ago, IMPASSE was nabbed late and with extra fitness third up is the one to follow from that event. From a completely different form line is THE LORD MAYOR who has 2000m+ credentials, and if fit can show up here after being unsuited in the Newcastle Newmarket.

RACE 9

Speed map/race shape: Langhro should use the inside gate to advantage in this and kick through and lead from Tabbing and Cool Sequence. Hirtshals and Lord Barrington, if he gains a start, won’t be far away either.

Advantaged runners: Great race to end the day but difficult to sort them out. SPIN is highly regarded after coming through good Sydney form, the Snowdens haven’t sent him up here for a track gallop. CURDLED is unbeaten this preparation and won at this grade and distance six weeks back, he gets a soft run behind the speed and just needs the seas to part. TAWFIQ BOY is another who missed the run last week when the Gold Coast was called off and if still wound up he’s a big chance third up. Both MANAYA and SHOGUN SUN have chances on form but will be back and wide, they have the ability but a win will be heart-stopping.

Saturday Soapbox Bets – 16th December

By stars on December 14, 2017

Back to a proper metropolitan track in Caulfield this Saturday for the Victorian racing circuit. Read on for our best bets on the card in the latest Saturday soapbox below! [Read more…] about Saturday Soapbox Bets – 16th December

Moonee Valley Moir Stakes Night Tips 27th September

By stars on September 27, 2017

Back to Moonee Valley we go but this time it’s for Group 1 Moir Stakes Night! The rail is out 4m the entire circuit and the track should play well with well. [Read more…] about Moonee Valley Moir Stakes Night Tips 27th September

Wednesday Best Bets – 27th September

By Jake on September 26, 2017

The good horses are slowly filtering back into the fold and tomorrow across Australia is no different with meetings at both Flemington and Rosehill Gardens.

The Flemington card is a belter with the rail out past the 10m position which is pretty rare for Melbourne metro racing.

Our best bets for the card are below, good luck if you’re having a punt!
[Read more…] about Wednesday Best Bets – 27th September

Caulfield Tips – 23rd September

By stars on September 21, 2017

Caulfield Tips for Saturday the 23rd of September. Naturalism Stakes Day! [Read more…] about Caulfield Tips – 23rd September

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