Check out our five favourite Horse Racing Punting myths!
Horse Racing is littered with myths and old punting wives tales of yesteryear that continue to plague the success of the recreational punter in Australia.
The team at Punting Stars list five of their favourite below and why you should be factoring it into your form and prices.
Wide barriers = bad barriers
This is our absolute favourite horse racing punting myth.
Newspaper ‘experts’, TV personalities and your favourite Sky Racing tipsters are all guilty from time to time for falling for it as well.
Inside draws can often end up being less favourable to a runners chances than an outside draw.
Depending on track position both leaders and backmarkers can be disadvantaged by an inside draw.
By drawing outside the leaders have more time to gradually work their way across to the front without facing pressure on their outside.
Whereas backmarkers often run into trouble when making a rails run through the field and often have to peel to the outside for a clear run home.
Think about how difficult Royal Randwick can be for inside draws with the rail in the True position, or the 1100m ‘chute’ start at Caulfield.
See below for barrier draw strike rates for both the 1000m and 1100m starts at Caulfield.
A classic case in point is the 2016 edition of the Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield (below).
Heatherly on the inside in the red hat has to absorb pressure from her outside throughout the entire race.
In contrast, the eventual winner Flamberge is able to control the race from the three-wide position.
For full info on the strike rate of barrier draws at Caulfield click here.
Horses up in weight are marked too harshly
Weight stops trains. Well, that’s what we are lead to believe anyway.
But, could an extra three kilograms stop a 450+ kilogram horse from running fast times?
We often hear tipsters comment on the ‘weight swing’ a runner has over another runner it raced against previously.
While weights do matter, they are just a very small piece of the overall picture you must paint when pricing up the chances of a horse winning.
Slow speed suits front runners and fast speed suits back markers
There is no blanket rule for what race shape suits on pacers and or backmarkers.
Each animal has different traits. Their strengths and weaknesses can be exposed by the pattern of the race.
For example; a horse with a superior short, sharp turn of foot to it’s competitors will be suited to a slow bunched field as it can accelarate away from the pack quicker than others.
A horse with a high cruising speed and good stamina is better served running along at a testing tempo and exposing those with a short sprint to a long grinding chase home.
Watch Houtzen (2016 Magic Millions winner) burn across from the outside draw below and run them off their legs.
Horses that flash home either want more distance or are coming winners
If you constantly fall for the above, chances are you are a losing punter.
Flashing light runs, horses to follow and black bookers can often be overbet at their next start.
They are often horses whose racing pattern of getting back in the field lends itself to hard luck stories and are often faced with tricky situations whereby they have to weave a passage through the field of tiring horses.
Going up further in distance isn’t always the answer for these horses. Particularly those with a short sharp sprint.
The extra distance can often ‘flatten’ them out.
Conversely, leaders or horses around the speed don’t have to travel as fast and normally have less pressure around them when rising in distance and are often an underrated market proposition.
Cover, all important cover!
You often hear racing commentators speak of ‘cover’ and the importance of getting cover.
Certainly, a keen horse gaining cover over a staying distance may help it ‘settle’ and relax during the run and when racing into a wind or chasing a hot tempo getting cover can be of assistance to a runners chances.
However, the search for all important cover can often result in getting trapped in tricky situations particularly if the speed in the race drops suddenly.
Many horses run much better when left to their own devices, allowed to stride out and build a running rhythm.
The often stop-start nature of the search for cover can kill this natural speed and momentum.
The video of the 2016 Oakleigh Plate at the start of the post is a perfect example of horses without cover running very well.
Five Horse Racing Punting Myths
We hope you’ve enjoyed reading and learned something from these Five Horse Racing Punting Myths.
Share this article with a mate who constantly bets on backmarkers or leaders from inside draws!