A quick update below on our plans for Season 2019.
This year we decided to put our energy into further development of the model and growing our private fund. As such we are not providing any ‘public’ assessments or betting advise
We will, from time to time share some tips and thoughts via the website or our Punting Stars Twitter profile and we do welcome any questions and feedback from past clients and followers throughout the season.
With that in mind, here are a few of our thoughts the AFL team had ahead of the new season!
What to look out for in Season 2019
What will 6-6-6 bring? Well, one thing was for sure and certain, it wasn’t going to bring all the coaches tricks out of the kit bag in the pre-season.
So be careful reading too much into the strategies you have seen throughout the JLT.
Round 1 is a new beast, the intensity will be up and defensive strategies will again be on full show.
That being said, we do expect the scoring overall to be up on last year. We also expect that the bookmakers might slightly overshoot this increase in their over/under total point lines.
The new kick-in rules will certainly assist teams with a penetrating quarterback on the roster. Guys like James Sicily and Jayden Short spring to mind but again, coaches and zones will adjust.
Three predictions for 2019
Star Tiger adds another Brownlow to his collection
No Cotch, not you mate, but Dusty. Dustin Martin had one of the best individual seasons in the history of the AFL in 2017 when he won everything but the Grand Final sprint.
In Horse Racing speak, he was prime for a ‘flat run’ last year where he regressed somewhat to the mean. He still had an amazing year (and polled 19 Brownlow votes) but did battle some health issues both physical and mental after what was no doubt a draining 2017.
He’s averaged 21.6 votes per year over his last six seasons and is firmly in his prime, right now. He also benefits from the fact he and Cotchin are the only ‘A Grade’ midfielders on the Tigers list.
The supporting cast is solid, but Collingwood and Melbourne have better midfields than the Tigers and we expect votes will be well spread among their top-end talent.
The Crows bounce back
They were decimated by injuries and incidents last year. No doubt they have a talent stacked list and they still have a strong home-ground-advantage.
They enter 2019 with a relatively clean bill of health (hallelujah) and a real chip on their shoulder. The back half of last season they did hit back a bit after a dire start and we see them starting much quicker out of the blocks this time around with four of their first six at home including Gold Coast and Fremantle.
The current line for Adelaide season wins is around the 12-13 mark, and we think they are more likely to go OVER than under.
The Adelaide Crows have an opportunity to return to finals footy in 2019 and this man holds the key 👇
— The Word (@theword) March 18, 2019
More quality exits Western Sydney and the Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney hasn’t had a great deal of luck in recent years with injury at key stages de-railing Premiership tilts. As a result, it de-railed the AFL’s plan for an early Premiership in the West to kick start the marketing takeover of NRL heartland.
The bottom line is, though – the area isn’t exactly a destination place for AFL players, the fan base is small and the majority of players playing there grew up in other states.
The Suns, on the other hand, will just struggle once again this year with very little hope or upside on the immediate horizon. Anthony Miles might be a sneaky shot at the Best and Fairest though after winning a VFL medal last year! It’ll get worse before it gets better for both the Suns and the Giants in terms of players returning home.
The public roars for a team in Tasmania will only get louder. The AFL loves putting Baby (Tassie) in the corner, but at some stage
— SuperFooty (AFL) (@superfooty) February 28, 2019
Premiership prediction and betting advice
We believe that the two best teams in the Competition are Richmond and Collingwood – depending on where you shop, they are at the top of the market around the $6 mark.
However, despite being the two most likely premiership winners, we believe you are paying a premium backing them both now.
Collingwood has a brutal start to the season (and a tougher draw overall). They face Geelong, Richmond and West Coast over the first three weeks and there is a good chance they will drop at least one of those games. They then travel to Brisbane who will be a tough challenge at the GABBA this year and then they return to the MCG for the ANZAC Day clash!
They’ve got the likes of Jeremy Howe and De Goey under mini injury clouds, we think you’re better off monitoring the market on the Pies before you pull the trigger.
Richmond start with some challenges (outside of Carlton in Round 1) but most importantly have some chemistry issues to iron out with Tom Lynch (who’s touch and go for Round 1), goal-kicker Josh Caddy is out for a while, as is Shaun Grigg while small forward Jason Castagna has had injury issues as well.
Once again, the Tigers look a huge threat, but at the current price, we are happy to monitor the market and hope for a better price (or eliminate some other threats first).