SWEEPING changes to the Queensland side has headlined the build-up to State Of Origin Game II, with the Maroons needing a win to stay alive in the series. State Of Origin Game II Betting Preview below.
New South Wales orchestrated the most one-sided result seen since Game III in 2015 (Queensland won 52-6), thrashing the Maroons 28-4 at Suncorp Stadium.
One-nil up in the series, the Blues are unchanged but Queensland has made seven alterations to its squad.
Veterans Johnathan Thurston and Billy Slater return to the side, pushing Anthony Milford to the sidelines and Darius Boyd into the outside backs in place of Justin O’Neill.
The veterans may be not be getting younger but Queensland’s return to its successful formula of years gone by will no doubt provide a spark. Valentine Holmes will debut on the wing.
But the go-forward will come from the big men up front who look a more imposing unit this time around.
Steamrolled by the visiting pack at Suncorp, Queensland has dismissed ageing veterans Nate Miles, Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra and Jacob Lillyman for Jarrod Wallace, Gavin Cooper, Coen Hess and Tim Glasby. The latter two will debut from the bench.
A bigger and more powerful forward pack, backed up by the two best playmakers in the game and a back line of try scoring machines should give the Blues something to think about. But is it enough to overturn the 24-point deficit from Game I?
Conventional wisdom says the match will be closer, but by how much? Punters by and large appear unconcerned and have unloaded on the Blues since full time in Game I.
TopBetta has reported that a whopping 90% of its H2H hold is on NSW after opening at $1.60. But the price has eased across the board, with $1.70 now readily available.
A whopping 90% of our hold for #Origin II in H2H market is on #uptheblues – but they’ve gone $1.60 > $1.70!
— TopBetta (@TopBetta) June 20, 2017
That quote seems short enough for a side that produced, in horse racing terms, a career peak first up. But the $2.22 on offer for Queensland also fails to entice.
For all of Queensland’s dominance over recent years, their record at ANZ Stadium sits at eight wins from 25 matches and they arrive with momentum and sentiment against them.
In the past ten completed series – relevant due to the number of key Queenslanders still playing – 14 matches have been played at ANZ Stadium (14 Suncorp Stadium, 2 Melbourne).
The highest margin of victory for either side in those fixtures is just 10 points and on just four occasions, the margin of victory has been greater than six points.
Such tight margins in NSW home games – considering the number of blow-outs in that time at Suncorp – is a testament to the strength and longevity of the legendary Maroons side.
With Queensland fielding a stronger outfit including two of its most experienced generals and the series on the line, all roads lead to a brutal, epic contest. Predicting a tight finish and betting accordingly is the smartest way home.
Bet: Either team to win by 6 points or less – 2 units @ $2.40 (Ladbrokes)