The Open, the British Open! It’s here folks. We approach the feature weekend in good touch after nailing Michael Kim at 600-1 last week in the John Deere Classic for our biggest collect yet. Read on for the Punting Stars 2018 British Open preview.
The venue is the Championship Course, Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland. It’ll play as a Par 71, 7,402 yards.
When they last played an Open here back in 2007, the average score was 73.38.
That year was a cracker with Padraig Harrington prevailing over Sergio Garcia by one shot after four playoff aggregate holes.
Final round scores and placings below. Plenty of throwback names on there including a T5 finish from Aussie Richard Green.
It’s a great layout with a tough finish and this year’s field is as deep and strong as any in recent times.
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) July 17, 2018
As with all Open’s, the scenery is breathtaking and the course can be at times brutal.
Thankfully for the players not accustomed to regular links play, the wind doesn’t appear to be too crazy a factor this weekend.
More on that later.
This year’s storylines and public favorites…
Twenty players priced between $12 and $50 with the bookies speaks to the depth and overall evenness of this year’s Open.
When was the last time Jason Day started north of 40-1 in a Major? This is going to be a cracker!
The condition of the course certainly will be a talking point in the lead-up to the first tee on Thursday, read on further for more about that.
Dustin Johnson deserves to be the favorite, he’ll bully a lot of these holes and to be fair, he probably deserves another major such has been his level of play over the past few years.
Justin Rose has had mixed success at his ‘home’ Open and no doubt it’s the one he wants to win more than anything. He’s in good form and should outperform his overall record in the Links feature.
Spieth and McIlroy aren’t at their best but getting 20-1+ for both will have punters excited while Justin Thomas has had a strong preparation for this event spending the best part of a month in Europe leading in.
How could we forget Tiger? He is doing a lot right at the moment. T5 in his previous start, 6th on Tour in strokes gained and 14th in scoring average.
Three wins and six T10’s at The Open suggest he can handle himself on the links 😉
By the way, did you see the parody interviews of some of the worlds best ahead of The Open this weekend? Funny stuff below!
— Conor Moore (@ConorSketches) July 16, 2018
Recent links winners at The Open and how they are shaping up…
The last five British Open Winners are all in the field for this weekend at Carnoustie and all are below 100-1 to win again.
2017 – Jordan Spieth -12
2016 – Henrik Stenson -20
2015 – Zach Johnson -15 (playoff)
2014 – Rory McIlroy -17
2013 – Phil Mickelson -3
Spieth hasn’t been playing a lot of golf and has missed four of his last 10 cuts on the PGA tour. In five starts at The Open, he’s yet to miss a cut however and his ability to craft shots and grind is helpful in tough conditions.
Stenson has been in really good touch since the Valspar (which he never plays well at). He’ll hit fairways and greens in reg and is a winning chance this weekend.
Johnson has had a solid season but has just the one Top 10 to his name in 2018. He missed his first three cuts at The Open but since then has had a strong record playing Links golf. A win, three top 10’s and four top 20’s suggest if he is to recapture winning form it could be here.
Rory once again will have the weight of Ireland on his shoulders. He has been inconsistent (as he can be) and his best is no doubt good enough. European form has been better than that on the PGA and he’ll be popular again this weekend.
Phil started 2018 really hot but has faded out in recent times. A missed cut in Scotland at the weekend isn’t the ideal preparation and he’s the least likely winner this weekend of this group of five.
The Course at Carnoustie and the predicted weather…
Carnoustie’s Championship Course is a thing of rugged beauty.
This year the term rugged really does describe conditions perfectly.
The fairways are super-dry and will run on strong, the greens are in super condition, however.
Just hit one 427 on 18 @TheOpen .. Guys would be hitting it in the burn in front of green 450+.. Carnoustie is baked out but greens are pure.. Never seen an Open this firm.. Will be an awesome week if it stays like this.. pic.twitter.com/AUXyPGF4iu
— Brandt Snedeker (@BrandtSnedeker) July 14, 2018
— Riggs (@RiggsBarstool) July 15, 2018
— Independent Sport (@IndoSport) July 17, 2018
As you can see, the firm fairways are enabling the players to hit the ball really, really long.
Does this favor the big bombers like DJ and Rory or does it enable the straight shooters like Rai and Stenson to supercharge their accuracy?
In the practice rounds, a lot of the top-tier players are using irons and fairway woods off the tees suggesting that the players will put a premium on accuracy and let the bowling green like fairways just do their thing.
The back nine at Carnoustie is tough, check out the scorecards of the top six players in the final round of 2007 below,
The green shaded squares indicate shots dropped and there is a clear correaltion toward the holes on the back-nine and shots dropped.
The same graphic again below for the 1999 Open at Carnoustie. Once again, the top players on the last day struggled on the back.
Unlike most courses, there aren’t many key stats that obviously stand out that successful players have done well over the years at Carnoustie.
Scrambling, however, looks to be very, very important.
In both 1999 and 2007 accuracy and distance were not overly important to the top 5 but scrambling was – music to the ears of fans of Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, Cameron Smith and Louis Oosthuizen to name a few.
This year with the fairways incredible quick, expect plenty of run-offs around the greens into bunkers and and rough that will present some very tricky up and down opportunities.
Weekend weather for Carnoustie, Scotland
As British Open’s go, this is pretty tame!
Wind forecasts don’t stretch beyond 25-30km throughout the weekend on the Carnoustie town forecast but we can expect a few more coastal showers and bursts of wind that don’t show up on the forecast.
One thing to keep an eye on if there isn’t much rain on the course is how quick the greens get and how that may affect some of your selections.
The Open betting market
We’ve used the Oddschecker UK grid to display the top chances in the market below as we think it is the best Golf odds grid in the business.
Those of you reading this from the UK/Europe, be sure to take advantage of the EW specials the big European facing bookies are offering this weekend!
The majority of our trades, however, will be made using Betfair who are more often than not, the best odds.
We’ve said it many times before but will once again.
Make sure you try your best to obtain the best possible odds on the golfers you want to bet.
The impact that it will have on your bottom line will be profound.
Especially, in a big tournament like The Masters with bookmakers and punters being more aggressive than usual!
Punting Stars Golf Model
Our Golf betting model is currently optimized from a trading point of view as we look to establish an early position pre-tournament and add to this throughout the tournament as value opportunities arise.
Since we commenced the service via a small group of subscribers and our Twitter feed in early August of 2017 the results have been really strong.
Bet 253.75 units
We are confident in our edge and will continue to churn a profit over time and since launch, we’ve found winners at some enormous prices for our followers on Twitter and private clients.
Michael Kim at 600-1 last week at the John Deere Classic, Shubhankar Sharma at 180-1 (Joburg Open), Haotong Li at 160-1 (Dubai Desert Classic), Andrew Landry at 160-1 (Texas Open), Satoshi Kodaira at 150-1 (RBC Heritage) and Bubba Watson at 180-1 (Travelers Championship) to name just a few!
Follow us on Twitter for our Golf Model’s trading selections each and every week on the PGA and European Tours.
Punting Stars Trades for the Open
*Please note all stakes are in accordance with a 100 unit betting bank.
Our first lot of trades will be released below and on our Twitter feed tomorrow morning AEST.
Pre-tournament – Starting Position
0.50 Justin Rose @ 18.50
0.15 Louis Oosthuizen @ 95
0.15 Bubba Watson @ 110
0.10 Thorbjorn Olesen @ 150
0.10 Webb Simpson @ 160
0.10 Xander Schauffele @ 170
0.10 Bryson Dechambeau @ 180
0.10 Lee Westwood @ 180
0.10 Patrick Cantlay @ 180
0.10 Luke List @ 200
Units Invested: 1.50
⛳️ #Golf – Betting Tips R2 – #TheOpen
0.50 Zach Johnson @ 38
0.30 Jason Day @ 55
0.25 Danny Willett @ 70
0.20 Tommy Fleetwood @ 50
0.10 Chris Wood @ 110
0.15 Kevin Kisner @ 27
0.10 Brandon Stone @ 55
0.05 Branden Grace @ 180
0.05 Patrick Reed @ 310
Units Invested: 1.70
⛳️ #Golf – Betting Tips R3 – #TheOpen
0.30 Brooks Koepka @ 32
0.20 Alex Noren @ 55
0.20 Matt Kuchar @ 22
0.20 Erik Van Rooyen @ 70
Units Invested: 0.90
⛳️ #Golf – Betting Tips R4 – #TheOpen
0.25 Rory McIlroy @ 19.50
0.10 Justin Rose @ 44
0.10 Alex Noren @ 50
Units Invested: 0.45
Total Tournament Investment: 4.55 units