To assist in answering some of the questions we have been receiving via our Punting Stars email and also on Twitter, we’ve produced some FAQ’s on our AFL Betting Model.
What sized betting bank is recommended and what are the suggested units in accordance with?
All of our model tips including Golf, NBL and AFL are all in accordance with a 100 unit betting bank.
What method of staking do we use?
We use a modified version of the Kelly Criterion.
What is the history of the AFL Betting Model?
For many years it operated as a private sports betting model for a small group of punters. In 2017 it was released to the public for free for the entire year via Twitter and the Punting Stars website recording 19 units profit at 16.75% along with our higher variance H2H plays, view our results sheets for full results from 2017.
Do you recommend playing both Line and H2H Models?
There are correlations when playing both Line and H2H betting that we account for within our portfolio staking.
We advise staking that favours our line model due to the less variance/lower drawdowns even though we have had great success with both models in the past.
Our recommendation to members is currently a staking method of an 80/20 split of Line/H2H betting which resulted in a 13.28% ROI last season.
Note: although this is our recommendation some members take just line bets and others choose a split that works best for them.
When and how will the AFL Model tips be delivered?
Tips will be delivered via SMS and Email on gameday between 10 and 12 pm. The vast majority of plays will be sent out at 11 am but occasionally there are situations that arise that will mean they need to go out earlier or later.
How many units do we expect to turnover in 2018?
We anticipate we will turn over in excess of 200 units (2 times betting bank) this season.
How will results be recorded?
We will record official results using the third highest price in the market at the time of sending the bet out. We will only record the top price if at least three bookmakers or exchanges have the price available at the time of sending out.
Why we recommend punters have a unit size in excess of $150?
Purely because of the price of the model. We feel that as a punter you need at least a 5:1 ratio of expected return to cost of product/service. This accounts for variance (remember the AFL season doesn’t have near as many games as an NBA or MLB season) and also ensures that if we have a strong winning year all of your profits aren’t chewed up in subscription costs. At the end of the day, we want you, the punter, to make the best investment decisions based on your current betting bank.
Do you have an option for smaller bankrolls?
YES! In 2018, we will be introducing Game total (over/under) for AFL punters each week. These will be FREE to all Punting Stars followers and we will also occasionally produce some player props for our Twitter followers.
Who do I contact if I have questions relating to my subscription or product purchases?
Simply email us via [email protected]
What some of our clients who have followed the model last year and in years prior say about the model…
Having followed the Punting Stars sports models for a number of years now, I would highly recommend anyone who wants to become a more profitable bettor follow along too. Not only are the results very good but importantly selections are always released on gamedays meaning that what I’ve found is that selection odds are easily achievable and that bookies are more willing to take a decent sized bet. After a great 2017 AFL season and a huge NBL season so far, I’m very excited for the upcoming AFL season! (Travis, QLD)
I gave the Punting Stars AFL Model a try for the first time in 2017 after receiving a recommendation from a fellow punter. I appreciated the no-frills nature of the service – a simple staking plan, sticking to high volume markets and exploiting a clear edge. The player props on the side were an added bonus. I can’t wait to bet up, on the AFL this season following the model picks. (Matt, NSW)