We’ve had a lot of questions in regards to our AFL Betting Model and how best to stake the core line bets with the higher variance H2H bets.
To combat this higher variance of the H2H plays and the relatively small sample set that a single AFL season gives us, we have created a staking method that we believe factors in this risk while safely maximizing our perceived edge in the market.
See below as we detail the staking options for following the model;
Recommended staking between Line and H2H bets
Currently, we recommend all new followers to follow the model in an 80% Line / 20% H2H split. We send out this already prepared for you via email or SMS.
Please note some followers follow the model a little differently which we cover below.
How to follow staking with our AFL Model
All bets are sent via Email and SMS in the following format.
Bets being sent are in the following format example.
Note this is an example only and not the plays for this weekend 🙂
2.50 Carlton +30.5
1.25 St Kilda -24.5
1.25 Bulldogs -17.5
0.60 Carlton @ 5.00
0.50 Bulldogs @ 2.95
0.30 Fremantle @ 4.00
Correct staking in the above using an example stake size of $200 would be a $500 bet on Carlton at the line and a $120 bet H2H.
Why do we recommend smaller H2H Bets?
Both models have been very successful long-term, however, H2H can lead to higher variance plays and larger drawdowns.
With both line and H2H bets correlated this split works well for our subscribers.
Happy with our advice already? then just take the bets as set out in examples, no need to read any further.
However, if you want to know about some adjustments that some of our subscribers might take this season read on.
We have some subscribers that take the lower variance approach and will take line bets only.
We also have a few that are more aggressive with risk levels taking a larger split on H2H bets which in the past have started the season very well.
Example Adjustments for Risk Level
100/0 – Take line bets only
80/20 – Take all bets as sent via sms (our recommendation)
66/33 – H2H Bets * 2 – Fremantle 0.60 units @ 4.00 in above example
50/50 – H2H Bets * 4 – Fremantle 1.20 units @ 4.00 in above example
Feel free to email any further questions to us directly: [email protected]
Good luck we can’t wait for the 2018 season to Kick Off!