Welcome to our weekly IPL betting review and suggested bets for tonight’s double header.
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In last week’s review (after match eight) we mused that only one game thus far had been won by the team batting first – and that outlier was itself a rain-shortened fixture.
We expected that pattern would be somewhat short lived judging by historical samples and now after 19 matches, the split of winners is seven setting the total and 12 chasing. That split is identical to the 2017 ratio at this stage of the competition.
We also posed the concept of the early toss bias having an impact on betting. But as the bias has slowly dissipated in the second week, it is a good time to look at which teams are most versatile and have tasted success setting and chasing totals.
A quick summary by team (in IPL table order) after 19 matches shows:
- Kings XI Punjab (5: 4-1) sits atop the table with four wins coming via an even split of two each batting and bowling first.
- Chennai Super Kings (4: 3-1) have scored two of their three wins via thrilling run chases. Their sole loss came when falling agonisingly short chasing 197 against KXIP. They mauled Rajasthan batting first on Friday.
- Kolkata Knight Riders (6: 3-3) have suffered three losses when defending 202, 138 and 191 (via D/L method – but they were thrashed). Their victory when batting first came against lowly Delhi.
- Sunrisers Hyderabad (4: 3-1) have bowled first every match – their sole loss came when unable to haul in KXIP’s 193.
- Royal Challengers Bangalore (5: 2-3) have secured both victories via batting second. But they’ve also suffered two defeats via this preferred method to sides ranked below them on the table, Rajasthan and Mumbai.
- Rajasthan Royals (5: 2-3) have comfortably bucked the trend. Both wins have been close and come via batting first against bottom – they’ve been thrashed on all other occasions.
- MI (4: 1-3) has incredibly batted first at all four outings, suffering three agonising defeats before a drought-breaking 46 run victory over RCB.
- DD (5: 1-4) looks a side with few answers, suffering four defeats from five – three by huge margins. Their only victory, batting second against Mumbai, came on the final ball of the chase.
So why is this relevant? Well as we discussed last week, we only want to look at H2H betting opportunities where we essentially believe the side is versatile enough to set or chase against the particular opponent.
While these are only small samples (4-6 matches each), we can draw a few key conclusions:
- Kings XI Punjab appears very versatile with Chennai Super Kings not far behind. No surprise they are one and two.
- Both Sunrisers Hyderabad and Mumbai Indians must be treated warily due to the nature of their samples. Of the two, Mumbai looks to have more upside, not having had the chance to chase a total yet.
- The nature of Kolkata Knight Riders’ three losses is a concern. They will be hard to assess H2H. Thankfully they play Delhi and RCB in their next two – they will likely be too short to back in both, so hopefully we can use those fixtures to learn more
- Rajasthan Royals have bucked the trend, but their inexperience has shown against the stronger teams.
- Royal Challengers Bangalore and Delhi Daredevils are both struggling. Don’t let last night’s RCB victory over DD, with AB de Villiers pummelling 90 from 39 balls, fool you.
We’ve applied these performances, plus our usual factors to tonight’s ratings, to come up with betting opportunities for both matches.
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings, 8:30pm 22/04//2018
Bet: Chennai Super Kings WIN – 1 unit @ $1.95+
The best price currently is with UBET @ $2.00
Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians, 12:30am 23/04//2018
Bet: Mumbai Indians MOST SIXES – 1 unit @ $1.75+
The best price currently is with Bet365 @ $1.83
Bet: Mumbai Indians HIGHEST OPENING PARTNERSHIP: 1 unit @ $1.80+
The best price currently is with Crownbet @ $1.81
From 25.25u outlay:
– On recommended min price, -1.62 units
– On best available price, -0.80 units