Monitoring AFL Betting Markets

The marketplace for wagering in Australian is forever changing and the AFL Betting Markets are no different. As consolidation continues and some of the high volume off-shore bookies are fazed out we’ve seen some trends in the markets.

TopSport has emerged as a market leader in Australia in terms of volume they take and also influence on the market.

Historically Pinnacle has been the strongest guide but with the IGA Amendment Act there is fewer punters in Australia with access to the Pinnacle markets and as such we think it is less efficient this year.

We’ve also observed some decent liquidity on the Betfair exchanges but you normally have to wait until Game Day if you want to bet into the purest market with decent liquidity.

Betfair now looks to have locked in its 2.5% commission rate ensuring a competitive betting market on the exchange as well.

Comparing AFL Betting Markets and Odds

The following online resources are handy for comparing bookie prices

Odds.com.au

https://www.odds.com.au/sport/australian-rules/

Odds is owned by NewsCorp and is a branch of the successful Punters.com.au business.

It’s a free resource and they have all of the main ‘soft books’ in Australia except for Neds connected into their grid.

The line updates are frequent enough for a free resource and it is all displayed in an easy format. They also have a nice mobile application you can download and keep as a handy tool when you’re out and about.

The one limitation of this resource at the moment is that line betting isn’t integrated as a bet-type into their grids.

Sportspunter.com.au

http://www.sportspunter.com/sports-betting/aussie-rules/australia/afl/

A free resource that has about half of the Australian books connected into their odds comparison service.

Line updates are relatively quick and this is a great resource to have as a back-up to Dynamic Odds for AFL betting.

Dynamic Odds

http://dynamicodds.com.au/

Dynamic Odds premium is a great tool – the best in the market we think, for following line movement in Australia.

Not only do they compare all of the major bookmakers in Australia (apart from Neds and Pointsbet) they also allow you to hover over a price or line and view all of the fluctuations.

This allows you to work out which bookie moved their line first and start to observe some patterns in the marketplace.

See the example below that displays the flucs on the TopSport line. Notice movement in not only the price but the + number.

Dynamic Odds also offer a free two week trial of their premium API integrated Horse Racing product that is worth checking out.

Getting the absolute best price you can

The easiest thing any punter can do is to make sure he or she has access to as many betting accounts as possible.

This will allow you to grab the best price in the market and as your staking increases to spread your liability a little bit across multiple soft books (all outside Betfair and TopSport) as to not flag your account too heavily.

Take the example above of the Collingwood v Essendon Anzac Day clash.

At 11am on Game Day we sent out a play on Essendon at the line and a smaller bet on them H2H.

Using the table above you can see that the best price at the +5.5 at this point in time is with both William Hill and Sportsbet while the best H2H price is at Betfair at a very efficient market percentage of 100.1%

Often you’ll see an overreaction from the bookies – usually to a few big bets or perhaps bets from noted sharp punters and the line will move drastically in a certain direction.

However, sometimes it is not a good time to bet that line after the big move because there is often what is known as a ‘buy-back’ as the market smooths back out and punters push the other side of the line back down.

By monitoring these markets and movement each week you’ll get a better feel for when the best time to bet certain lines is. So add Dynamic Odds to your favorite tabs ahead of AFL Round 6.