AFLX launched last night and whether punters liked the concept or not, AFL 2018 and Aussie Rules Football is now back on the map.
Our core product at Punting Stars is our AFL Betting Model that focuses on the low margin, high liquidity AFL bet types such as H2H’s, Line Bets and Totals.
However, we do understand that punters are interested in these futures and or proposition markets and if the edge is big enough and we can get set – we play them too.
It’s important to note that the edge in future or prop betting does need to be larger than it would be on a regular week to week bet where our capital is only tied up for a few days at most.
These futures markets are normally very high percentage markets to give the bookmaker extra cushion for ‘getting things wrong’.
Below we take a look at a few of the popular AFL season props and our quick-fire thoughts on the markets.
**All odds comparisons used below are taken from Odds.com.au who we believe to be one of the best sources of comparison for Australian corporate bookies.
2018 AFL Odds – To Make The Top 8
We’ve written already about how difficult Sydney’s start to the season is. Star midfielders Dan Hannebery and Isaac Heeney have are among a few key Swans to suffer interrupted preseasons as well so the $1.15-20 for the Swans to make the Top 8 right now looks skinny. Having said that, at full strength, they are a very good squad and after Round 5 or 6 this bet option might represent some value.
North Melbourne right down the bottom at as much as $9 is somewhat interesting. The Kangaroos played six games that were decided by a goal or less in 2017, winning just one. Fox Sports recently released an interesting article anaylsing the Pythagorean theory. They suggested the Roos were better than their 2017 record suggests. North Melbourne, as well as the Gold Coast, were noted outsiders that we predicted could start well and shorten in this type of market at least early on.
Finally, last years Premiers Richmond is $1.52 with Betfair (best price) to make the finals again in 2018. Since the AFL moved to the 8-team finals back in 2000 only two Premiers have failed to make the Finals the following year. The Tigers have kept their list together but it is important to note did get very lucky with injuries last year.
2018 AFL Odds – Coleman Medal
This award used to be one of the most coveted in Australian Rules Football but has probably taken a backseat in the past few years as the threat of a Full Forward kicking 100 goals in a season has seemingly died down.
Buddy Franklin has won the award four times and is the last player to kick 100 goals in a season (2008) but again, Sydney face a tough early schedule so you may get a better price a few weeks into the season?
In fact, over the last ten years only four current players have won this award. Franklin (four times), Jack Riewoldt (twice), Jarryd Roughead and Josh Kennedy (twice). The other winner over the past decade was Brendan Fevola back in 2009 at Carlton.
Jeremy Cameron is a player we’d normally be ready to follow in a market like this given his history as a goalkicker in bad sides and the experience he now has. However, the uncertainty of how the Giants forward line will play out is enough for us to stay out.
If Richmond play a true high CHF this year which Hardwick has hinted at occasionally, then the $41 for Jack Riewoldt appeals as he will play closer to home more consistently.
Daniher (inexperience), Kennedy (age and injuries) and Brown (bad team and inexperience) all look short enough in the early market and overall, it isn’t a market we are keen to play in.
and yes, Geelong ‘mids’ Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield are higher on the list than key forwards Josh Jenkins and Jarryd Roughead!
2018 AFL Odds – Brownlow Medal
Dustin Martin had a well publicised ‘perfect season’ in 2017 so how does he get better? Certainly, his marking inside 50 has room for improvement and each year he’s been in the league he has gotten better so why would this year be any different?
Josh Kelly had a breakout year for the Giants last year and will cop more attention this time around. Don’t forget his teammate, Stephen Coniglio who had his 2017 season destroyed by injury received the most votes for the Club in 2016 in front of captain Callan Ward
It does seem odd to us that an aging Gary Ablett is shorter in the market than Joel Selwood. Especially as the Cats will likely nurse Gaz through the season as best they can.
Dangerfield has 68 votes over the past two seasons – next best Dusty with 61 and then there is a large gap to third. No surprise to see them at the top of the grid
Overall, there really isn’t a standout bet for us in the three markets above that we can confidently recommend for punters to go out and take.
However, in the interest of the hypothetical… the ‘best’ value bets of those we mentioned are below
Jack Riewoldt $41 Coleman Medal
Patrick Dangerfield $6 Brownlow Medal